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Is this the end of the dollar's streak? 
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Is this the end of the dollar's streak? 

created Daniel Kostecki20 May 2022

The current week may end with a drop in the dollar. Previously, the US currency rose for six consecutive weeks, reaching its highest level in 20 years, taking its toll on other markets.

Dollar quotes as well stock indices, bonds, gold, silver or cryptocurrencyquite clearly show a correlation. As the US currency appreciated, other financial instruments went down, and the past six weeks saw the capitulation of every dollar-settled market. Currently, however, the dollar's streak may be interrupted.

Does the interest rate hike cycle lose its impact?

The systematic appreciation of the USD could have been related to both the expectations of interest rate hikes in the US and the worsening of investors' sentiment towards risky assets, which was caused by the war with Ukraine unleashed by Russia.

And although the cycle of interest rate increases in the United States started only in March this year, and the most important moves may still be ahead of us, investors could already fully discount its impact on the market.

Investors are starting to price in the easing of financial policy

At some point 10-year US bond yields exceeded 3,1 percent. Meanwhile, US interest rates are expected to rise to 3,00-3,25 percent. This seems important because historically the yields on 10-year bonds first rose - in line with the principle that the market discounts the future - to the threshold to which the federal funds rate then rose.

So if the market is now at a point where bond prices take into account the full cycle of interest rate increases, the next step may be to price in the US monetary easing. This, in turn, paves the way for a return on other assets. And it seems that thanks to this, we are currently seeing a rebound in the prices of precious metals or cryptocurrencies, and bond yields in the case of American 10-year bonds are returning below 3%.

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About the Author
Daniel Kostecki
Chief Analyst of CMC Markets Polska. Privately on the capital market since 2007, and on the Forex market since 2010.