Definitely better mood in Europe

Although the EUR/USD pair finally fell below the level of 1,0900 and has the largest weekly decline since the end of September, we see an increase in optimism during the last session of this week. This goes hand in hand with the publication of good PMI indices from European countries, although we have already seen better than expected readings in the case of Asian countries.

The PMI index is catching wind

The PMI index for Germany was 42,6, compared to the preliminary reading of 42,3 and the previous reading for October at 40,8. Data also performed better from France and for the entire euro zone, showing that the cyclical economic trough may be behind us. On the other hand, it must be remembered that the PMI indices still remain below 50 points, i.e. the expansion limit. This means that entrepreneurs are still in a poor mood, although slightly better than a month or a few months ago. Given the better-than-expected readings, we see attempts to revive the euro, although for now they are rather meager. The situation is definitely better on stock indices, where a clear recovery has been visible since the morning. German DAX is growing by 0,5% and is less than 1,5% from the historical peaks that occurred a few months ago.

We also learned data from Poland regarding the PMI index for November. The PMI index is also catching wind and rebounds to 48,7 from 44,5, with the expectation at 45,3. It can be seen that it is very close to the "recovery" threshold, which is 50 points. Moreover, we have already seen increases in the index for the third month in a row, and apart from the turbulent pandemic period, when the index often changed its value by several points, now the increase of 4,2 points from month to month is the largest, apart from the pandemic period.

Fall in oil prices

There is still a lot waiting for us in today's calendar. Data from the Canadian labor market, and then at 16:00 p.m. the ISM index for US manufacturing will be released, although it should remain below 50 points. Only next week will we know the data from the American labor market, although today is the first Friday of the month.

It is also worth mentioning yesterday's OPEC+ meeting. Although the cartel emerged from this meeting with a face, it was still the market is not satisfied with the decision. The additional cut of 1 million BRK per day is to be voluntary, and the cuts themselves are to be announced individually by individual countries. Of course, the word voluntary is the key word in this case. Many countries that simply did not want to further cut production will be able to "voluntarily" interpret the declarations made. The result, of course, was a fall in prices oil, which of course has a positive impact on the process of fighting inflation.

After 10:00 we paid PLN 3,9952 for the dollar, PLN 4,3535 for the euro, PLN 5,0572 for the pound and PLN 4,5732 for the franc.

Source: Michał Stajniak CFA, XTB