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The pound has room for further increases. Will hard Brexit stop him?

The pound has room for further increases. Will hard Brexit stop him?

created Natalia BojkoAugust 29 2019

Global markets are full of trade uncertainty. In general terms, risk aversion moves like a swing. In Europe, number one topic remains Brexit. Boris Johnson's tenacious policy seems to be slightly crumbling, thanks to which the pound has been breathing a bit in recent days. After two black series on the British currency, we have lived to the moment where all the investors' fear and ignorance of risk, overestimated and valued the aversion to the danger of investing capital in it. What awaits us in the coming days?

A momentary whim?

Boris Johnson's position is very well known to the world media. His predecessor was more flexible for talks with the Community. It was only when the successor of Theresa May took power over the government that investors seriously began to consider extreme scenarios. One of them is, of course, hard Brexit. The vision of a non-contractual exit from the community will be catastrophic, as analysts and leading politicians have slowly convinced Johnson.

Risk has been valued by the pound

There's still a lot of ambiguity at Brexit. Thanks to Johnson meeting the EU and establishing any talks, GBP gained strength. This is a clear message that the value of this currency will increase in the near future "Stable" data that leads to political stability. The last two weeks have brought the pound to the minima before 2017 a year. Within a few days (taking into account the zloty exchange rate) we recorded practically 20-penny increase and it does not appear that in the next few days it was to include the third, black series. The fact is, recent events in global markets have found their reflection in the most fluctuating currencies.


GBP / PLN chart, H4 interval. Source: xNUMX XTB xStation

Problem with Ireland

In addition to Brexit, the main contentious topic in Great Britain is the border with Ireland. After the memorable words of Angela Merkel regarding the positive assessment of a possible agreement on the border they raised significantly pound rate. Boris Johnson assured in recent interviews that his officials are working on a creative solution to the dispute. Will it positively affect the GBP valuation in the coming days?

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About the Author
Natalia Bojko
Graduate of the Faculty of Economics and Finance, University of Białystok. He has been actively trading on the currency and stock markets since 2016. It assumes that the simplest analyzes bring the best results. Supporter of swing trading. When selecting companies for the portfolio, he is guided by the idea of ​​investing in value. Since 2019, he has held the title of financial analyst. Currently, he is the co-CEO & Founder in the Czech proptrading company SpiceProp. Co-creator of the Podlasie Stock Exchange Academy project (XNUMXrd and XNUMXth edition).