IDC: AI will not "fire" people because there is a shortage of them. This will make our work easier

If you think that artificial intelligence will eliminate some professions and have a negative impact on the labor market, you are right, but not entirely. One of the main reasons why companies use AI is the need to fill the deficit on the labor market, say analysts from the consulting company IDC.

Programmers, proofreaders, graphic designers, video creators, specialists responsible for SEO and social media - if forecasts are to be believed, they are the ones who will suffer primarily from the digital revolution and the development of generative artificial intelligence. The companies themselves admit that they are already discussing replacing employees with AI. According to IDC research, this applies to 28% of the largest companies operating on our continent. Moreover, as many as 78% plan to replace up to 20% of their workforce with “digital collaborators”. If these numbers were to be absolutely believed, it would mean huge changes in the labor market.

- And such a scenario is likely, especially in the short term. The first signs are already visible, for example in the media, where it turns out, for example, that proofreaders may be replaced by technology - he notes Ewa Zborowska, Research Director from the consulting company IDC.

Let's assume that one large company employs over 100 people in Europe. people, including several thousand in Poland. A simple calculation shows that even several thousand people could lose their jobs - in just one company, in one country. On a broader scale, these numbers look much scarier. However, the devil is in the details.

A few million fewer hands to work

– Artificial intelligence has been used in our IT systems for several years and has a positive impact on employment. Specialists are necessary to create such solutions. In turn, in the case of our clients, we see that automation is often a solution to staff shortages. This is clearly visible in the example of the digitization of warehouses where there is a shortage of workers. We notice this especially in e-commerce warehouses, where order processing is carried out through manual processes. Artificial intelligence will not eliminate human work, but it will support it, helping to optimize process management and eliminate errors - draws attention Mikołaj Garbarek, director of the Systems for Logistics and Public Transport department at PSI Polska.

He agrees Karolina Pietz-Drapińska, responsible for the marketing department at Komputronik, which also implements AI-based tools – We have been experimenting with artificial intelligence for some time and we see areas that can be successfully automated. However, we perceive AI in terms of streamlining work, providing additional value for customers thanks to cooperation between humans and technology, not job cuts. Artificial intelligence is supposed to be a support, not a competition for employees – he says.

IDC data shows that 78% of companies in Europe already use automation or are implementing pilot implementations of this technology and the main reason given is not the desire to lay off employees and reduce costs, but on the contrary - to compensate for their lack. It is estimated that by 2030 the number of employees on our continent will drop from 265 to 258 million. And this is not the only problem employers have to face.

- There are areas where there is no shortage of workers, but in many others there is a deficit. This applies not only to Poland, but to EU countries. This is clearly visible in the area of ​​AI, where a completely new labor market is being created. Someone must understand, use, implement and introduce this technology to the organization in both technological and purely human terms. We see that we lack these competences today. At the same time in certain areas where automation processes maybe to replace people, employees can be engaged in new tasks provided they are trained and retrained - draws attention Ewa Zborowska, Research Director at IDC.

Tomasz Kuciel from Editel Polska, a company dealing with B2B communication automation, also draws attention to other issues that seem to contradict the thesis of mass layoffs and a fundamental change in the labor market due to the development of technology, including generative artificial intelligence.

– Let us remember that in times of demographic decline, there are and will be fewer and fewer people to work. Europe is getting old. According to data from the European Commission, half of the population on the continent is over 44 years old, and 21% is over 65 years old. At the same time, we are observing the evolution of employees' expectations (especially the younger generation) towards employers and the nature of work - they strive for self-fulfillment, engaging in tasks they consider valuable, often preferring shorter working hours. As a result, the willingness to perform routine, repetitive tasks decreases dramatically, which creates challenges for companies. This is where an area appears where AI has not only the opportunity, but also the scope to show its capabilities - convinces Tomasz Kuciel with Editel Polska.

In fact, there is an increasing problem in filling certain positions in Europe. In the second quarter of 2023, there were 2,7% of job vacancies in the EU countries. On a national scale, these numbers look different. In the Netherlands and Belgium it was estimated at 4,7%, while in Austria it was 4,4%.

3-day work week? Possible, but unlikely

IDC experts emphasize that by 2025, 45% of large companies in... EMEA region will use GenAI, the efficiency of office workers will double. This means freeing up their time. Does this mean that it will be possible to introduce a 3- or 4-day working week? Not necessarily. The declarations clearly indicate that the company's employees will want to use the freed up resources to implement other projects that are important to them. In practice, this means that employees will be able to use their potential where it is most needed, significantly reducing their involvement in monotonous and boring activities that can be automated. This may include, among others: data processing - sorting and categorizing documents and automatically generating reports and analyzes or responding to standard customer inquiries.

- Let's look at the invoice processing process. Today, in most companies, this process is analog - it requires manual processing of documents, their preparation, sending - by traditional mail or e-mail, acceptance, linking invoices with orders, etc. Not only is this activity time-consuming, labor-intensive and expensive, but it also encourages errors. This process can be successfully automated and believe me: accountants will thank you for it, they will not protest. Large companies sometimes process hundreds of thousands of accounting documents monthly. It does not make sense - convinces Tomasz Kuciel from Editel Polska, the company operating the government Electronic Invoicing Platform.

Investments in employees will also be a positive aspect of the development of artificial intelligence technology. According to IDC analysts, 60% of large companies will modernize hardware and software to improve their experience and reduce churn. Moreover, companies will invest in the development of employee skills, especially technological ones, which will allow companies to increase productivity by USD 1 billion by 2026.

Technologies without humans make no sense

There is also another interesting conclusion from IDC's analyses. It turns out that implementing technological solutions based on artificial intelligence increases efficiency only when employees are involved in the process. In other words: implementing technology and leaving it alone will not bring the expected results.

– We asked companies that invest in automation what impact they think the implementation of generative artificial intelligence will have. The answers were quite clear. Most, 32% of respondents, expect that AI will save time and increase employee productivity, 30% expect a better flow of information, and 23% expect the possibility of implementing more tailored training. The same number of respondents indicated that they expect AI to make faster decisions and eliminate repetitive activities. None of the respondents indicated reduced costs resulting from possible staff reduction - draws attention Ewa Zborowska from IDC.

Paradoxically, there are many indications that in the long run, AI will not only not lead to mass layoffs, but will generate demand for new professions. With one caveat – Someone once said that AI won't take your job, but a person who knows how to use AI will - points out Ewa Zborowska from IDC.