Who is to blame for inflation in Poland? Research results of Centrum im. Adam Smith

Center for them. Adam Smitha conducted a survey to investigate the opinion of Poles on the culprits of the current inflation situation. The comparison covers two periods, i.e. February 18-21, 2022, i.e. before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, and September 9-12, 2022, when inflation according to GUS is at the level of 17,2%. The results and conclusions are presented below.

Who is to blame for inflation?

According to the respondents, from the beginning of this year's inflation (in February 2022 it was at the level of 8,5%), in the opinion of Poles, the main culprit of this state of affairs is the government in Poland. The Russian war in Ukraine, and hence the developing economic and political destabilization in the European Union, only confirmed the government's responsibility for inflation.

Methodological note: Research conducted for the Adam Smith Center on the Ariadne panel in September 2022. Nationwide random-quota sample N = 1092 people aged 18 and over, where the amounts were selected according to the representation in the population for gender, age and size of the place of residence. Method: CAWI.

From February 2022, the number of people declaring that the Russian war in Ukraine is to blame for inflation has increased from 13% to 22%. It is admittedly an increase in declarations by almost 70%, which still accounts for less than half of the government in Poland blaming the inflation. Compared to February 2022, Poles pay less for inflation NBP. 

People with primary education are to blame relatively less for inflation, and most people with higher education. In February, the Polish government was blamed for inflation by 39% of people with primary education and 52% with higher education. In September 2022 with primary education 43%, with higher education 57%. 

Only 1% of inhabitants of cities in the area of 500 thousand of the inhabitants were to blame for the inflation on the European Union. 

Andrew Sadowski, president of the Center Adam Smith, comments:

“Inflation is as popular in the minds of citizens today as the Russian war in Ukraine. In social perception, the government's responsibility for inflation is increasing, which indicates an ineffective attempt to shift responsibility for it only to external factors, independent of the government's internal policy. The start of interest rate increases by the Monetary Policy Council, very often identified with the NBP itself, means that the central bank itself is no longer blamed for inflation in the first place. The campaign indicating that the rise in inflation, which, inter alia, caused by the ever-increasing electricity prices, the European Union is responsible for the climate policy, which was also imposed on Poland.

Along with the real, not statistical increase in inflation, which develops due to the pro-inflationary policy pursued by the government, the society will feel that the government itself is directly responsible for it and its consequences are more and more dramatic for life. "

Anna Golebicka, expert of the Center Adam Smith, adds:

“We are starting to feel inflation more and more acutely. Poles lose their savings from month to month, and with the money they earn they can buy much less. It is also clear that inflation is and will be with us for the next months and even years. The government is unable to get out of this situation, neither realistically nor even in terms of communication. It does not make Poles feel that they are in control of the situation and that they have a strategic idea to stop it and restore their financial security.

If we take into account the situation in the EU countries, where the average inflation is 10,1%, and 5,6% in France, or even 10% in Germany, then in Poland core inflation alone (excluding food and energy prices) is almost 10%. %, so it is not surprising that Poles blame it in the first place on the government. 

It is surprising that from February to September, when inflation continued to rise and the government carried out a series of successive measures to increase the money supply in Poland, there was only a small increase in the number of citizens blaming the government for inflation.

The presented result of the social assessment shows that inflation is becoming an important factor that will have an impact on decisions about changes on the political scene.  Dynamic, but also chaotic actions extinguishing for a moment social discontent resulting from inflation and price increases, but not removing the sources of inflation, may only increase public conviction of the government's responsibility. "