Investment forecasts 2019 - is this a bear market?

After the abrupt overselling of 2018 in recent weeks, investors on many fronts have been overwhelmed by doubts, but their moods may improve. As the report shows "2019 investment forecasts - is it already a bear market?" prepared by TMS Brokers, there is no panic in the market yet. Experts in the new year see increases, including among instruments such as gold and WTI oil.

Bessa or stabilization?

As it appears from the publication TMS Brokers "2019 investment forecasts - is it already a bear market?"Despite the fact that the fourth quarter is difficult for the markets, it is not yet possible to talk about uncontrolled developments, which suggests that investors do not abandon the vision of calm and the global economy will recover from the momentary depression. 

Konrad Białas, chief economist at TMS Brokers:

However, for investors to start thinking optimistically, it is first necessary to clarify the situation around the most important sources of uncertainty. Then consumers and companies will feel sufficiently confident in their decisions, and better macro data will become evidence that markets are waiting for.

So how will the overall condition of the global economy in 2019 look like? US economic growth should be above average despite fiscal impulse losses. In the case of a global slowdown, the high US budget deficit may turn out to be a source of risk. In Europe, Brexit and the crisis in Italy remain the main hot spots. It is likely that China's economic growth will weaken due to the tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration. However, you can not talk about a collapse, because the Chinese authorities have a wide range of tools that can stimulate the economy.

Gold, oil, currencies

Experts assume that the beginning of 2019 will be stormy, but the end of the year will be optimistic. For investors, this means in their opinion that you need to adopt the right tactics when making investment decisions. The plan should not lack investment in gold, WTI oil and selected currency pairs, including EUR / USD. 

After a terrible year in the precious metals market, this year's trend has a chance to reverse. Analysts see a rise in gold prices in the falling yields on US treasury bonds and possible turbulence on the stock markets. There is a reason why the ore is called "Safe harbor". 

In the case of WTI crude oil, the current pessimism may reverse as fears of a gigantic oversupply of raw material weaken. This is linked to instability in countries such as Angola, Nigeria, Libya and Venezuela.

As for currency pairs, in the case of EUR / USD, the increase in the yield on European bonds will encourage return of investment capital to European markets, pulling the euro up. Analysts predict that the European Central Bank will decide to raise the cost of money in September 2019, but the currency market will be ready for it in the second quarter, building demand for the euro.

Bartosz Sawicki, Head of the Analysis Department, TMS Brokers:

In 2019, we expect turbulence to continue in the stock markets. Weaker global growth and less favorable monetary policy of the major central banks are the main arguments for the weakness of the so-called basket. emerging markets. As a result, after strong increases in the 2018 year, the Brazilian stock market may be under particularly strong pressure.