The most expensive Black Friday in history is ahead of us

The record weak zloty and inflation make the upcoming Black Friday one of the most expensive in the history of Poland. The euro is now 8,75 percent. more expensive than the same day in the last 5 years. The dollar costs 9,5 percent and the pound 13 percent. more. Imported products or those purchased individually abroad may also be more expensive.

About the author

Pawel Majtkowski - analyst eToro on the Polish market, which shares its weekly commentary on the latest stock market information. Paweł is a recognized expert on financial markets with extensive experience as an analyst in financial institutions. He is also one of the most cited experts in the field of economy and financial markets in Poland. He graduated from law studies at the University of Warsaw. He is also the author of many publications in the field of investing, personal finance and economy.

Black Friday? It was already cheap

We have Black Friday (26.11/29.11) and Cyber ​​Monday (6,8/XNUMX) ahead of us, which are the days of the biggest promotions. However, this year we will have to pay more for purchases than in previous years. On the occasion of these days, we usually buy electronics, household appliances, clothes and perfumes. These are products that are mostly imported, and the weak zloty will make them more expensive this year than in previous years. Domestic products are also becoming more expensive due to inflation, which currently stands at XNUMX%. y / y This means that the most expensive Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday in the history of Poland are waiting for us.

Source: eToro, own calculations

EToro analysts checked the exchange rates of the euro, US dollar and British pound on Black Friday in the last 5 years. Today's euro exchange rate, PLN 4,7050, is 8,75 percent. higher than the average exchange rate from that period (PLN 4,33). The dollar, which costs PLN 4,18, is today almost 9,5 percent more expensive, and the pound with the current exchange rate of PLN 5,59 is more than 13 percent. more expensive. This means that the goods purchased by Poles abroad are so much more expensive, and the imported goods may also be more expensive, as long as their price already takes into account the change in the currency exchange rate, because usually the price change occurs with a certain delay.

  Source: eToro, own calculations

Promotions depending on the euro exchange rate

By far the biggest impact on the prices of goods on Black Friday is the fluctuation of the euro exchange rate, because this European Union countries are Poland's most important trading partners. However, movements in the dollar and pound also affect the prices of goods in or priced in these countries. Additionally, Black Friday has always been an opportunity for shopping abroad, many Poles bought products in foreign stores on this day, their prices are directly related to the current exchange rate.

The weakness of the Polish currency is due to both global and local factors. Globally, it is the effect of the strengthening of the dollar, the weakening of the euro causes a simultaneous weakening of other currencies, including the zloty. The dollar is strengthened by the announced by FED restrictions on the asset purchase program that precedes the US interest rate hike. The most important local factor is the lack of trust in NBPwhich has a non-transparent policy related to interest rate increases. It seems that there will be no significant appreciation of the zloty in the near future. So it is likely that imported Christmas gifts will also be the most expensive in history this year.