The Monetary Policy Council will not change rates in Poland. The discount is only possible at the end of the year

A two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Council began today (RPP). The decision on interest rates in Poland will be announced on Thursday afternoon, and a press conference of the president is scheduled for Friday. National Bank of Poland Adam Glapiński.

The Monetary Policy Council will not change interest rates

Analysts and economists agree that the Monetary Policy Council will not change interest rates in Poland at the April meeting, leaving the main one at 5,75%. This will be another month of break in cost of money reductions, after in September 2023 the Council first surprised the market with a cut of as much as 75 basis points, and in October reduced it by another 25 basis points. Many people then accused the Council of having a "pre-election nature" of the cuts, which was confirmed by the subsequent, post-election failure to continue this cycle of easing monetary policy.

The market does not expect interest rates to be cut in Poland at the next Council meetings either. These expectations have not changed even after the data on much lower inflation in Poland published last Friday. In March, according to preliminary estimates, it dropped to 1,9%. from 2,8 percent Y/Y in February, which was significantly below market forecasts (2,2% Y/Y). The hawkish attitude of the Council and the President of the NBP, Adam Glapiński, which has been visible in recent months, speaks against reductions.

The earliest that rates can be reduced is at the end of the year. And only minimally, only 25 basis points. These are the market expectations now. Analysts expect greater reductions only in 2025. According to the market consensus, rates may then fall by a total of 100 basis points, which, together with a possible reduction at the end of this year, would bring the main rate down from the current 5,75%. up to 4,50 percent at the end of 2025.