That's for sure! The MPC will not change interest rates today. in Poland

Wednesday's event on the Polish financial market is the meeting Monetary Policy Council (MPC). Last in 2022. The market is sure that the Council will not change interest rates. Not today, not for the next few months.

MPC: wait and see?

Currently, the main interest rate in Poland is 6,75 percent. Its last increase took place in September this year. After today's MPC meeting, the interest rate will not change. The market is convinced that the MPC has already finished the cycle of rate hikes and will now maintain bias "wait and see", observing the impact of their previous decisions.

This conviction about the end of monetary policy tightening in Poland was additionally increased after the publication of November data on consumer inflation. This unexpectedly fell to 17,4 percent. from 17,9 percent y/y in October, while the market assumed its stabilization at the October level. Although this does not mean the end of inflation growth, as its peak will take place in the first months of 2023, it will certainly be lower than previously expected. In addition, there is a growing belief that in the second half of next year inflation will decrease significantly. The world's lowest oil prices in a year fit this scenario perfectly.

In the opinion of the majority of market participants, the Council will now not only wait for the effects of the previous rate hikes, but it has already definitively ended the cycle. The market consensus assumes that the main rate at the level of 6,75 percent. will be maintained until the end of 2023, and in the first quarter of 2024 the Monetary Policy Council will slowly begin to ease monetary policy, cutting rates by a total of 2024 basis points by the end of 150.