What happened to the future? – Saxo Bank forecasts for Q1

The once bright future now seems bleaker than ever. Geopolitical conflicts are escalating without resolution. Despite the widespread desire for political change, evident in the rise of far-left and far-right parties, the effects remain disappointingly similar.

This is because most policy programs offer little more than repeated and watered-down versions of previous proposals for change. Even cultural life is dominated by repetitions. Productivity in industry, culture and politics has all but disappeared.

Instead of the promised flying cars, we have their less impressive cousin, electric vehicles. While we should be investing time figuring out how to get to Mars, we're spending it on social media, losing our ability to think critically while turning everyone into a Kardashian.

We are engaged in senseless nonsense in a world that desperately needs solutions for clean water, flood control, climate change, inequality, defense, cybersecurity, education and infrastructure.

The game of pretend and tug is in its final round. However, we expect 2024 to start and end in the same way. Growing dissatisfaction with the establishment will spill over into elections in the EU, UK and possibly the US. Cynics may argue that perhaps this is the future we deserve.

Voices of desperation and discontent need a political platform to show that solutions cannot be found in anti-immigration measures, closed borders, abandoning international cooperation, focusing solely on national security or giving in to panic and fear. All of these actions are fueled by fear, the most primal instinct in all of us.

To be compassionate, we must make an effort to rise above naivety and selfishness and accept other people. The smartest person in any room is probably the most compassionate, not the most aggressive.

Our perspective is on how the world will once again engage in make-believe and stalling in its final throes. Whether it will last a year or two remains to be seen, but governments will inject fiscal spending into the system and the debt burden will once again become a problem. Policy choices will be driven by fear and anti-establishment rhetoric, and it is more likely that slow growth and relatively high core inflation will be the economic result. Q1 and Q2 pose the greatest risk to the economic outlook, while Q3 and Q4 carry increased political risk.

About the Author

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist and CIO Saxo Bank. Djoined Saxo in 2000. As a CIO, he focuses on developing asset allocation strategies and analyzing the overall macroeconomic and political situation. As head of the SaxoStrats team, Saxo Bank's internal team of experts, he is responsible for all research, including quarterly forecasts, and was the founder of Saxo Bank's outrageous forecasts. Before joining Saxo Bank he cooperated with Swiss Bank Corp, Citibank, Chase Manhattan, UBS and was the global head of trade, currency and options in Christiania (currently Nordea). Jakobsen's approach to trading and investing is thought-provoking and is not afraid to oppose consensus. This often causes debate among the global market community. Every day, Jakobsen and his team conduct research in various asset classes, covering major macroeconomic changes, market movements, political events and central bank policies. With over 30 years of experience, Jakobsen regularly appears as a guest at CNBC and Bloomberg News.