Zloty weaker, US data in focus

On Tuesday, the zloty, similarly to the Czech crown and the Hungarian forint, depreciated against the main currencies, reacting to the strengthening of the US dollar and the general deterioration of sentiment towards assets in our region. Today, the sentiment towards the Polish currency may be reversed by… inflation data from the US. If the disinflation across the ocean turns out to be greater than analysts predict. Otherwise, the sentiment will deteriorate, leading to a deeper depreciation of the zloty.

At 10:30 am, you had to pay PLN 4,6910 for the euro, which is PLN 1 more than on Monday at the end of the day. The dollar gained PLN 2 to PLN 4,3840, recovering from its 3-day drop. The CHF/PLN exchange rate, which has been in an upward trend since the beginning of March, increased by PLN 1,8 to PLN 4,8020. The pound, on the other hand, went up by 1 gr to PLN 5,3246 and extended its upward trend for 4 days after last week, for the 3rd time since mid-December, it made a turn upwards from around PLN 5,25.

Compared to the Czech crown and the Hungarian forint, the zloty fares relatively better. Both of these currencies are weakening more than he is today.

We are waiting for US inflation data

However, the real emotions on the currency market are yet to come. The condition and at what levels of the Polish currency and other currencies will end the day should be decided at 13:30. Then US inflation data will be published. It will be the main event of the day and the second event next to concerns about the condition of the US banking sector, which will determine moods in the global markets in the coming days.

Analysts predict that in February CPI inflation in the US fell to 6%. year-on-year from 6,4 percent. in January, while core CPI inflation fell to 5,5 percent. from 5,6 percent A lower than expected decline in inflation or its increase will deepen concerns about the condition of the US economy, while intensifying the crisis in the US banking sector. And vice versa. Lower than expected inflation will calm the markets and should lead to an increase in risk appetite, which will have a positive impact on the zloty.

The PLN exchange rate is not very dependent on the Polish economy

The domestic currency, not only today, but also in the coming days, should primarily remain under the influence of global factors. This means that data on consumer inflation in Poland published on Wednesday and Thursday's report on core inflation will fall to the background. The return of the impact of domestic impulses can be expected next week at the earliest, when, among others, data on industrial production, construction and assembly production, retail sales, as well as wages and employment in companies. Even then, the impact will be limited to a large extent, as investors will wait for next week's results of the US meeting Federal Reserve (Fed).