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The zloty looks towards the data from the Polish economy

The zloty looks towards the data from the Polish economy

created Marcin KiepasAugust 16 2022

In recent weeks, the zloty was mainly influenced by the moods prevailing in the global markets and behavior EUR / USD. This week, macroeconomic data from the Polish economy will play a major role.

The market is waiting for macro data

The return on the domestic currency market observed in mid-July, which in the following weeks brought about the appreciation of the Polish currency, was mainly driven by the observed similar return on the Eurodollar market and the improvement of moods in the global markets. To put it briefly, the appreciation of the zloty was a simple reaction to the weakening of the dollar and an increase in risk appetite. 

USDPLN Daily_16082022

USD / PLN daily chart. Source: Tickmill

During this time, other factors, including mainly local factors, such as published macroeconomic data or changing expectations regarding further decisions Monetary Policy Council (MPC) on interest rates practically did not count. They remained in the second or even third plan. Now that will change. 

This week, macroeconomic data from Poland should start to play a big role again. However, not all, but a selected report.

16 August

Today at 14:00 National Bank of Poland (NBP) will publish the July data on core inflation in Poland. Analysts predict that it will increase to 9,2 percent. from 9,1% in June, after consumer inflation in July accelerated to 15,6 percent. from 15,5 percent Y / y a month earlier. However, today's data may be ignored. This is because there is now a consensus on the market that the price increase in Poland will slow down in the coming months along with the significant fall in fuel prices that has been observed for several weeks, which means that the MPC will probably look more strongly at other rates when deciding on rates. data than inflation reports.

17 August

On Wednesday, preliminary estimates of the dynamics of the Polish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of this year will be published. It will be the main event of the week on the zloty market. Analysts forecast a decline in GDP by 0,8%. Q / A, after the economy grew at a rate of 2,5 percent in QXNUMX. K / K. A larger decline would be quite a disappointment and could reduce market expectations for another interest rate hike. Better than expected data, as long as it is not significantly better, will be adopted neutrally.

18 August

On Thursday, data on the consumer climate in Poland will be published, which should not provoke any major emotions. On the other hand, Friday's data is. Then the July data on industrial production (forecast: 7,8% y / y), producer inflation (forecast: 25,2% y / y), employment (forecast: 2,1% y / y) and wages in companies (forecast: 13,2% y / y). Investors would welcome a decline in PPI inflation, with a stronger than expected output growth. Such data may strengthen the zloty. Their reverse configuration, especially when it comes to an even supportive increase in inflation, higher than expected wage growth, will trigger the opposite reaction.  

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About the Author
Marcin Kiepas
Tickmill UK analyst. Financial markets analyst with 20-year experience, publishing in Polish financial media. He specializes in the foreign exchange market, Polish stock market and macroeconomic data. In his analyzes he combines technical and fundamental analysis. Looking for medium-term trends, examining the impact of macroeconomic data, central banks and geopolitical events on the financial markets.