Bitcoin ETFs plunged into a bear market. Is there a chance for a rebound?

If the official definition of a bear market is a decline of 20% from the peak, then IBIT, i.e Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock meets this definition. The value of the unit dropped by over 20% from its peak just after its debut to yesterday's closing. For this reason, it can be concluded that the debut of ETFs is consistent with the behavior of quotations after the debut of futures BTC, after the debut of the BTC futures ETF or after the debut of the Coinbase exchange. Whenever Wall Street introduces a product, at first, as you can see, it is treated as a so-called exit liquidity for the institution's earlier front running.

What do inflows and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs look like?

According to BitMEX Research, after five days this is what the structure of inflows and outflows looks like. In first place is the ETF from BlackRock with an inflow of USD 1,2 billion, and in second place is Fidelity with just over USD 1 billion. The largest outflow is from Grayscale funds, where investors could not before the transformation into ETF sell their bitcoins and they are doing it now. Here, the scale of outflows amounted to USD 2,2 billion. Net all funds recorded an inflow of USD 1,160 billion after 5 days. However, this was not enough to raise the price of bitcoin for now, as large sell orders from bitcoin miners were also expected to contribute to the supply side.

Where are the supports and is this the end of the Bitcoin decline?

From the point of view of the chart, potential support may be at the level of USD 40325 to USD 39225, so it is relatively close. The return from this area could be confirmed by the bitcoin price exceeding USD 42300. Then the path towards the recent high at USD 49000 could be open. However, here there is a need to reduce the supply from the side GBTC while maintaining interest among participants of other funds. The overall situation on the financial market remains very good, even despite the recent increase in bond yields. Yesterday the index Nasdaq xnumx broke the all-time record.

However, if the support level of USD 39200 was broken, the next support seems to be in the area of ​​USD 34755 and 32165. This is actually the area indicated by many market observers who expect a correction here, with the aim of another rally after the halving, which should take place in April. It is the movement after the halving that is usually the strongest, and then most speculators will probably be looking towards USD 100 per BTC.