Stock exchanges are waiting for the CPI reading from the USA. A challenge for markets and the Fed

Today's session will probably be marked by waiting for data from the United States in the form of the publication of CPI inflation for February. A month ago, these data sowed the seeds of uncertainty as to whether inflation could be stopped in the United States and only then PCE readings allowed us to catch our breath, and the higher CPI reading was downplayed.

Consensus CPI inflation reading in the USA

The median expectations of surveyed economists regarding the CPI reading in the US for February indicate a reading of 3,1% y/y, i.e. unchanged compared to January, and 3,7% for core inflation, which would mean a decline from 3,9% a month before. From well-known financial institutions Goldman Sachs expects publication at the level of 3,7% for the core and 3,2% for the CPI. In turn, JP Morgan goes with the median. However, the most pessimistic about inflation data is UBS, which expects publication at the level of 3,8% for the core and 3,2% for CPI.

Volatility during today's data

The American market may experience increased volatility today, also due to the upcoming Fed meeting (March 20). Since Friday, we have been observing a more nervous mood on Wall Street, where Nvidia shares dropped further, and on Monday Meta, which temporarily brought contracts down S & P 500 towards 5160 points. However, for today's observations, it seems that the key levels may be 5160 and 5115 points, should the data show higher inflation than expected, and 5230 or 5257 points. on the SPX contract may be crucial for data indicating lower inflation.

Relative weakness of WIG20

The Polish stock market, in turn, seems to be weaker than the American one, and the scale of the decline from the peak on February 23 to March 8 on the WIG20 contract was almost 8%. From the point of view of the current situation on the chart, it is possible that the contracts may head towards 2420 points. under an optimistic scenario. Optimism would be broken if FW20 broke around 2345 points, which could open the way even towards 2300 points.

Time of data publication

Please remember that summer time is already in effect in the USA, so everything happens an hour earlier than usual. The session starts at 14:30 p.m., and CPI inflation data will be published at 13:30 p.m. Polish time.