What are we going to eat in a recession? Poles are cutting expenses

GDP slowed down sharply in the second quarter, which means that Poles are cutting their spending on the eve of the recession. The way to lower your grocery bills is to switch to cheaper sources of protein. Salmon consumers will switch to meat, and beef and pork consumers to chicken. Vegetarians are in a more difficult situation because this animal protein is currently the cheapest.

The demand for food is increasing

Fuel prices at gas stations depend on the price oil, this relationship is known to almost everyone. Regardless of the economic situation, each person should absorb about 0,9 g of protein per 1 kg of body weight. So, an adult weighing 60 kg needs to eat at least 50 grams of protein a day to stay healthy and muscular. What protein we choose is influenced by culinary habits, ethical considerations, but most of all by its cost. When a recession hits the horizon, consumers are cutting back on spending. And that usually results in choosing a cheaper protein source.

The global demand for protein in the world is also increasing due to the increase in the population. Later this year, the world population will exceed 8 billion, and an additional 500 million people will be added by the end of this decade. It is estimated that the demand for food will increase by 2050% by 60. And a lot of that growth will come from protein sources.

Consumers choose cheaper protein

In the current climate, with many countries on the eve of (or already into) recession, consumers are cutting back on their spending, which is shifting to cheaper sources of protein. People who previously could afford to eat fish, such as salmon, can switch to cheaper meat in order to save money. Consumers beef or pork, they can change them to chicken. Vegetarians are in a more difficult situation, because animal protein is currently the cheapest and it is difficult to find such cheap substitutes.

READ: The food market, or how to invest in food? [Guide]

The long-term trend indicates the growing popularity of plant-based meat substitutes, but recently, due to the purchasing decisions of consumers who conserve, it has been stopped. Meat substitutes remain the most expensive source of protein in most markets (their price in the US averages around $ 25 per kg). This is clearly visible in the downwardly revised forecasts of producers such as Beyond Meat or Oatly (producer of plant-based milk). However, in the long run, the prices of substitutes and their popularity should increase.

In the near future, therefore, we can expect an increased demand for cheaper meat and a reduction in more expensive fish or vegetable meat substitutes. It is worth adjusting your investment portfolio to this state of affairs by looking for companies that will benefit from such changes in consumer behavior.

About the author

Pawel Majtkowski - analyst eToro on the Polish market, which shares its weekly commentary on the latest stock market information. Paweł is a recognized expert on financial markets with extensive experience as an analyst in financial institutions. He is also one of the most cited experts in the field of economy and financial markets in Poland. He graduated from law studies at the University of Warsaw. He is also the author of many publications in the field of investing, personal finance and economy.