The new James Bond is a test for the cinema industry

No Time To Die, the new movie about Agent 007, cost $ 250 million. We will soon see if, for the first time after a pandemic, he will be able to massively attract people to cinemas and whether he will earn over a billion dollars, like "Skyfall" in 2012. He will most likely produce another Bond Amazon and Jeff Bezos.

About the author

Pawel Majtkowski - analyst eToro on the Polish market, which shares its weekly commentary on the latest stock market information. Paweł is a recognized expert on financial markets with extensive experience as an analyst in financial institutions. He is also one of the most cited experts in the field of economy and financial markets in Poland. He graduated from law studies at the University of Warsaw. He is also the author of many publications in the field of investing, personal finance and economy.

Will cinemas return to the "old" tracks?

Next Tuesday, September 28 in London, the premiere of the new film about the adventures of James Bond "No Time To Die" will take place. In Poland, the film will be released three days later and will be the first major global hit to appear in cinemas after the pandemic. The premiere of the new 007 will therefore be a very important event for the cinema industry and the forecasts for the entire industry for the coming years depend on its origin. The premiere of this movie was originally scheduled for April 2020 and has been postponed several times. And the fact that it will finally take place now means the industry believes the time has come when viewers can return to theaters en masse and for good. It will also be an attempt to answer the question of whether there is a chance to return to the number of viewers as before the pandemic. After the pandemic, it can be seen that viewers are not only more afraid of being with others in a small space, but also streaming and vod services have developed significantly over the last two years. Some of the films premiere simultaneously in cinemas and on the Internet.

Amazon wants to take over the manufacturer of the new Bond

The producer of "Nie Czasać" is the MGM label. The cost of production is estimated at $ 250 million. This is less than the cost of the previous installment of the adventures of 007 - "Specter" (2015 - $ 300 million). Global revenues from the movie "Specter" amounted to $ 880 million, less than the record-breaking "Skyfall", which in 2012 brought $ 1,1 billion. MGM estimated the financial cost of delaying the release each month at $ 1 million. This is probably the last Bond, with no Jeff Bezos aboard. Amazon is to take over MGM by the middle of next year. The digital giant wants to pay $ 8,45 billion for MGM, or about 40 percent. above its market valuation. This is a bonus thanks to which Amazon will consolidate its significant position in the movie market. In this way, it can compete with streaming services even more effectively, primarily with Netflix (Amazon Prime Video has, according to the latest data, about 200 million users, 175 million of whom have benefited from streaming in the last 12 months, Netflix 209 million subscribers).

However, there are already voices that Amazon and MGM may have a monopoly position, which is why the merger process may be blocked and the case may go to court. However, there is a good chance that the next James Bond movie will already be produced by Amazon. Maybe then we will see Jeff Bezos himself in one of the roles, just like in July we could see him as a space passenger on the Blue Origin ship.

How to invest in the cinema industry? Preferably through a diversified portfolio of companies from a variety of sectors, including the cinema and entertainment industries. In Poland, the largest cinema chains are Multikino, Cinema City and Helios. Multikino belongs to the Vue International holding company, which is not listed on the stock exchange. We can, however, buy shares of the London-listed Cineworld Group, which owns the Cinema City chain. The pandemic's share price has fallen from over £ 200 to the current £ 68. Since the beginning of the year, the shares have gained 10,75%. The Helios cinema chain belongs to Agora listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. We are also exposed to the market by the American cinema chains AMC, Cinemark and IMAX. If it turns out that viewers do return to the cinemas for good, the current cinema company valuations will prove very attractive.