Saxo Bank: 10 the most shocking forecasts for 2019.

7. Recession in Germany

source: Saxo Bank

Germany, for decades at the position of world leader, have problems with the optimal use of modern technologies. A jewel in the crown of the German economy, responsible for 14 proc. GDP, is the automotive industry. It was supposed to be a giant of growth, with car sales in 2018 at the level of 100 million copies. All in all, only 81 million cars are sold, only 2 percent. more than in 2017 and much less than 5-10 percent. sales growth rates from the XNUMXs and beyond.

By 2040, 55 percent sales of new cars in the world in total and 33 percent. the stocks will be for electric cars. However, Germany is just starting the transition to electric cars, and years of delays and higher tariffs in the United States will not improve Germany's supply chains and exports. In 2019, antiglobalism is at its peak, and the market focuses on costs, domestic markets and production, as well as on further exploiting big data and reducing environmental pollution - the exact opposite of the trends that have been Germany's economic power since the 80s. As a result, the recession begins in the third quarter of 2019.

8. X-class solar flare causes chaos and $ 2 trillion in damage.

source: Saxo Bank

Life on Earth exists thanks to the stable reserves of energy provided to us by the Sun, but it is not always only a gentle and benign ball of burning hydrogen. Astronomers specializing in solar matters know that it is also a boiling cauldron capable of incredibly violent explosions in the form of solar flares. In the worst eruptions, the sun emits real matter and radiation in the form of coronal mass ejections.

In 2019, with the start of the 25th Solar Cycle, the Earth is out of luck and a solar storm hits the Western Hemisphere, causing most of the satellites on the wrong side of the globe to fail and causing massive chaos in GPS-based travel, logistics and electricity infrastructure. What will it cost? About $ 2 trillion, or in fact about 20 percent. less than the worst-case scenario predicted in a 2013 Lloyds-sponsored studyregarding potential financial risks associated with solar storms.

9. Introducing a global transport tax (GTT) in the face of increasing panic on climate change

source: Saxo Bank

The world is experiencing further effects of unusual weather phenomena; in Europe the summer is again extremely hot, what will make panic over the capitals around the world. Due to the significant privileges for the international aviation and shipping industry, it is becoming the recipient of the new Global Transportation Tax (GTT), introducing a "ticket" tax in the aviation industry and a "tonnage" tax in the transport industry linked to carbon dioxide emissions.

The new tax is set at $ 50. per tonne of CO2 emissions, twice as much as previously proposed and well above the 2018 average of € 15 / tonne under the EU Emissions Trading System. GTT contributes to the rise in air fare and sea freight prices and translates into costs for consumers. The United States and China have already criticized aviation taxes for aviation, citing the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation, but China is changing its position as part of its fight against environmental pollution. This forces the United States to reluctantly join forces as part of a global transport tax for the aerospace and transport industries. Due to higher uncertainty and lower growth, the prices of shares of companies from the tourism, aviation and transport sectors are rapidly falling.

10. The IMF and the World Bank announce the end of GDP measurement and focus on productivity

source: Saxo Bank

During the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, chief economists Pinelopi Goldberg and Gita Gopinath they surprise everyone with the decision to stop measuring GDP. The argument is that GDP is not able to measure the real impact of cheap, technology-based services or environmental impacts, as evidenced by the significant deterioration of health and the environment in India and other parts of the world.

Undoubtedly, one of the most popular, and at the same time least understood, terms in economics is productivity. In the simplest terms, it refers to the production produced by the hour of work. However, in the real world, productivity is a much more complex concept. In fact, it can be considered the main factor conditioning the standard of living in time. If a country wants to improve the sense of satisfaction and the state of health of the society, the production of one employee must be higher than in the past. This unprecedented decision of the IMF and the World Bank also symbolizes a departure from the central bank-dominated era, associated with the breakdown in global productivity since the global financial crisis.