Data from the US labor market below expectations

Instead of the expected over 500 thousand. in the US non-farm jobs were created by half as much. The decline in unemployment seems to be positive information.

The unemployment rate in the US fell in November by 0,4 percentage point from 4,6%. (in October) to 4,2 percent. The market expected a decline to 4,5%. Meanwhile, the reading turned out to be more positive, and at the same time the lowest since February 2020. The number of unemployed people in the US fell by 542, to 6,9 million. However, it is still 1,2 million people more unemployed compared to 5,7 million unemployed in February 2020. Meanwhile, the economic activity rate increased to 61,8% in November. It is 1,5 percentage points. lower than in February 2020

The main data in the form NFP showed an increase in employment in the non-agricultural sector by 210 thousand There was an increase in professional and business services, transport and warehousing, construction and production. Retail trade was characterized by a reduction in employment.

The dollar's reaction to the data

After the publication of this data EUR / USD exchange rate It has reached daily highs at 1,1333, from where it seems to be turning back quickly. The first reaction to weakening the dollar could have been related to a slightly worse main reading, i.e. the aforementioned NFP, but the unemployment rate or almost 5% wage growth may be factors strong enough for the Fed to decide to normalize its monetary policy. After the US data, the market interest rate may estimate that the first rate hike in 2022 may take place in June, and another in November.

The stock exchanges seem unshakable

For today publication of the data The American stock exchange, which is trying to recover after the last correction, seems to be unresponsive. This week's index quotes Nasdaq xnumx are trying to hold on to last close, and the Dow Jones seems to be struggling with a weekly loss of 0,55%, and S & P 500 with a decrease of just over 0,2 percent. DJIA index in turn, it tries to stay above the 200-session average, which is in the region of 34480 points.

The NFP reading may close a very intense week for the markets, but in turn it opens up awaiting the next Federal Reserve decision on interest rates and the QE program along with the latest macroeconomic projections. The Fed will meet on December 14-15 and then the emotions may be even greater.