Calendar rich in macro events. What awaits us this week?

Last week, investors received confirmation of a decline in inflation in the US, the first timid signals of a possible change in the inflation trend in Europe (in October, in 11 European Union countries, HICP inflation fell in relation y/y) and the highest inflation in 40 years in Japan. In addition, there were media leaks about the fact that European Central Bank (ECB) may raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December instead of the expected 75 basis points, and half of Europe froze information about the fall of the rocket in the Polish Przewodowo.

It has been hot in the financial markets in recent days. Eurodollar first attacked and then retreated strongly below 1,04. The zloty went strong thanks to the news from Przewodowo. Global stock markets slowed their gains, and profit-taking began in some of them. This second group included Warsaw Stock Exchange, which, however, did not prevent the WIG20 index from ending the 5th consecutive week with an increase. After hitting $1785, gold also started a downward correction. WTI oil it fell significantly below the local low of October and headed towards the September low, when its price was the lowest since the beginning of the year. The cryptocurrency market, on the other hand, was in turmoil all the time fall of FTXbut on bitcoinie it happened to be relatively calm at that time, and its quotations remained in a narrow consolidation.

What will be the fourth week of November in the financial markets?

Paradoxically, despite a very large number of published macroeconomic data and other events from the world's major economies, it may turn out to be quite calm on the markets. And this even despite the fact that reports from China arouse great emotions this morning, where the first Covid-19 cases were registered over the weekend since May this year.

Firstly, because after the recent big changes it is natural to calm down and decrease in volatility. Secondly, the decline in volatility may be affected by Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday in the US. Just in case, however, let's take a look at the calendar and see what can potentially arouse emotions in the beginning of the week.

Thanksgiving Thursday in the US makes the first half of the week potentially more interesting. Also because the markets will then be more sensitive to different impulses. Here, however, it should be remembered that the Friday after Thanksgiving officially begins the pre-Christmas shopping season in the USA. Hence, data on how much Americans spent on Black Friday will be one of the observed market news.

Data-rich macro calendar

But let's get back to the macro calendar. Wednesday is going to be the most interesting. Then both the minutes from the last Fed meeting and the series of November PMI indices for Europe and the US will be published.

After recent media reports on what decision the ECB may take in December, investors will certainly look more closely at the minutes of the last ECB meeting. This one will be published on Thursday. It will also be published on the same day ifo index for the German economy, which may affect the behavior of the euro i German DAX.

A big event, albeit only in relation to the New Zealand dollar, will be Wednesday's decision of the RBNZ. Especially that the market expects an increase in interest rates by as much as 75 bp to 4,25 percent. The central banks of China, Sweden and Turkey will decide on interest rates this week.

Data on the Polish economy

A lot of data will come from Poland. On Tuesday, reports on October's PPI inflation, industrial production, wages and employment in companies, as well as November's data on economic activity will be published. A day later there will be data on retail sales and construction and assembly output in October. On Thursday, reports on money supply and consumer sentiment will be released, and on Friday, the unemployment rate.

Such a large amount of data will obviously draw the current picture of the domestic economy and will be a reference to monetary policy. It's just that when it comes to interest rates, the cards have long been dealt. The Monetary Policy Council ended the cycle of rate hikes (at least for 12-15 months). Therefore, the new reports will not change the view on further actions of the Council. For this reason, they will not have a major impact on the zloty, and the zloty itself will remain under the main influence of global markets and the behavior of EUR / USD.