When truth is stranger than fiction: shocking predictions that came true

Shocking Saxo Bank Forecasts is a classic that many people wait for every year. Saxo's shocking forecasts, however, are not about formulating probable forecasts, but above all, those that will be surprising. Still, sometimes real life catches up with the predictions and becomes so shocking that the predictions turn out to be true. We looked through the archives to see which of the shocking predictions so far turned out to be much closer to the truth than expected.

2023 Honorable Mention: A country will ban all meat production by 2030

When you look at last year's forecasts, it's clear that they turned out to be more shocking than correct. The most popular forecast was made by Charu Chanana, a market strategist, according to which a country would decide to ban all meat production by 2030. This did not happen and it cannot even be claimed that it was close to reality. However, at the supranational level, meat, as an important element in the fight against climate change, became the subject of debate during the COP28 conference on climate change organized by the UN in the second half of the year. At the time of writing, the UN is expected to publish a plan for global food systems, focusing on reducing meat consumption.

Although no country has banned meat production, there is a growing belief that meat (and its consumption) should be at the center of the climate change debate. Choosing a topic that turns out to attract attention and going a step further than it actually is is really the essence of this exercise, comments Chanana.

Shocking forecast for 2022: Plan to phase out fossil fuels sidelined

As 2022 approaches, Ole S. Hansen, director of commodity markets strategy, wrote that politicians will push climate goals into the background and will support investment in fossil fuels to fight inflation and the risk of social unrest, while rethinking the path to a low-carbon future.

This overarching prediction came true – unfortunately as a result of Russia's unforeseen invasion of Ukraine.

Last November, we could not have predicted that the world was galloping towards an energy crisis caused by Russia's war in Ukraine, says Ole S. Hansen, director of commodity markets strategy, explaining how he came to the conclusion that in 2022 . fossil fuels will gain in importance again: - This forecast, which is the result of the lack of investment and the increasingly urgent need to support gas at the expense of coal, basically predicted a more investor-friendly environment in relation to (previously) disgraceful investments in the so-called producing dirty energy. This action supported the EU's decision to classify gas and nuclear energy as green investments, explains Hansen.

Shocking 2018 Forecast: Volatility Spikes After Stock Markets Flash Crash

We did not experience a one-off decline of 25%, as happened in 1987, but two dramatic events in 2018 that confirmed our assumptions - points out Peter Garnry, director of SaxoStrats.

He explains how he came up with this forecast: - We came up with this shocking forecast at the end of 2017 because the year was going to end with surprisingly low volatility, and bitcoin from just under $1 in late 000, it strengthened to around $2016 in November 10 (Bitcoin's price eventually rose to almost $000 by the end of the year). Everyone was speculating on Bitcoin, and selling the volatility of currencies and stocks was promoted as easy, predictable money. That's where we started to have a strange feeling that all this euphoria and these kinds of positions could have dramatic consequences if conditions changed even the slightest.

Garnry says the increase in volatility started in February and ended dramatically around Christmas: The so-called Volmageddon in February 2018 almost completely wiped out short volatility funds, including some famous exchange-traded funds, because VIX index exploded from 13,64 to 50,30 in just two trading sessions. This event changed the approach to short volatility strategies in subsequent years. Later in 2018, the market tried to convey to the Fed that it was making a political mistake by raising interest rates as the economy was deteriorating.

This led to a 20% sell-off from October peak to trough in a single session on December 26, 2018, with the most dramatic trading sessions occurring over the Christmas period when there was a decline in liquidity. These dramatic events paved the way for the wild bull run of 2019., when investors once again forgot about everything related to risk.

Shocking forecast for 2017: Huge bitcoin gains and cryptocurrency boom

When cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, began to gain public attention, our SaxoStrats team predicted that the then leading currency would significantly increase in value. The justification was the excessive spending of President Donald Trump's administration, causing increase in the already high national debt and a sharp increase in inflation. Combined with the fact that the world wanted to move away from central bank currencies, Bitcoin would become the preferred alternative. The shocking prediction turned out to be all too accurate: at its peak in 2017, the price of bitcoin reached almost 20. USD.

However, the forecast did not fully correctly determine the circumstances of this event. This was due not so much to macroeconomic changes during the Trump era, but to speculation around bitcoin that fueled its initial surge. However, taking into account subsequent increases cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin in 2021, the rationale presented in the shocking forecast for 2017 turned out to be accurate.

Shocking prediction for 2015: Brexit in 2017

In shocking predictions for 2015, our SaxoStrats team wrote that the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) would win 25% of the national vote in the British general election on May 7, 2015, unexpectedly becoming the third largest party in Parliament. UKIP was to become a coalition partner of David Cameron's Conservative Party and announce a planned referendum on Great Britain's EU membership in 2017. As a result, the yields on British treasury bonds were to increase dramatically.

We didn't quite hit the deadline, but the forecast regarding the circumstances turned out to be quite accurate. “We had a very strong feeling that the 'vote against' phenomenon would emerge both in the US elections and ultimately in the Brexit vote,” recalls Steen Jakobsen, Saxo's chief information technology officer. - To a certain degree We correctly predicted "breaking the social contract" – which meant that society as a whole no longer benefited from monetary policy, leaving the equality gap widening.

The timing turned out to be premature, but the context and reasoning were completely correct. It was not possible to repair the split in the Conservative Party, a modus operandi treating the electorate in advance was a gross mistake on which we based our forecast, explains Jakobsen.

Shocking forecast for 2013: Gold price correction to USD 1 per ounce

At the time of writing, our $1 forecast signaled a one-third drop in price, says Ole S. Hansen, director of commodity strategy, who made the first correct shock forecast in 200.

Here's what he had to say about it: In 2013, price gold corrected to $1 per ounce and actually fell below that level as investors increasingly focused on stocks and the dollar. The main factor was breaking the key support at USD 1 in April 2013 - a move that, in our opinion, increased the risk of a bear market, bringing the price down towards USD 1 - says Hansen.